Newest eligible ECR
The board uses the newest ready, unretracted expert-consensus observation published by the cutoff. Position rank is used only when an overall rank is unavailable.
How League Read ranks players
Public rankings keep attributed expert rank, consensus market ADP, and scoring-specific projections separate. League-specific recommendations then apply your scoring, roster, lineup, player availability, and acquisition context.
- Ranked players
- 284
- Attributed sources
- 2
- Consensus ADP coverage
- 45%
- Latest update
Inputs, sources, and freshness
Every displayed input retains its source and observation time. The selected season, scoring format, team count, and quarterback format determine which evidence belongs on a public board.
Matching ADP only
Consensus ADP combines matching human drafts, human mocks, and provider consensus. Recency, sample size, confidence, and source independence affect the blend.
Scoring-specific points
Expected points are the point forecast. When a matching fitted outcome model is available, floor and ceiling come from its player-specific lower and upper outcome quantiles. Otherwise the range is shown as unavailable.
Sources stay visible
Provider names, links, formats, update times, rank ranges, draft samples, and market movement remain attached when the source supplies them.
Value Rank and tier boundaries
Market behavior, expert opinion, and League Read’s projection-derived value answer different questions, so the site labels them separately.
How experts order players
The retained ranking source supplies the board’s expert ordering and, when available, its best-to-worst rank range.
Where matching drafts select players
This is observed draft behavior. It does not use League Read projections and is not presented as a value prediction.
Projected value above replacement
Scoring-specific points are compared with positional replacement and adjusted for roster demand and scarcity.
Value Rank
rank(demand × (projected points − position replacement + immediate scarcity drop))
Default 12-team, 1-QB public baseline
Tier boundary
next best plausible rank > current worst plausible rank + 0.5
Position bands are used when ranking uncertainty is unavailable.
League-specific recommendations
A connected league uses the same projection authority, then adds its rules, roster construction, available players, and timing. Each component is normalized from 0 to 1 before weighting.
demand × (60% VORP + 20% position + 12% scarcity) + 8% confidence
QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and DST each use their own replacement depth and demand. Scarcity is the projected-point drop to the next player at that position in the roster-neutral comparison pool, not a count of rostered players. Those position-level results are then normalized across the full league board. Prior rosters, keepers, owner behavior, and ADP do not enter League Read rank; they affect separately labeled availability and expected-pick signals.
60% league + 22% lineup + 10% bench + 8% need
With an active selected roster, Players combines the underlying League Read rank with lineup gain, bench improvement, and need. Before the draft it leaves prior-season rosters out and does not publish a personal rank. Once drafting starts, roster status uses current picks and confirmed keepers rather than prior snapshots. It never borrows claim pressure or FAAB logic.
65% league + 12% lineup + 8% bench + 15% need
The lineup optimizer compares the developing draft roster before and after a player is added. Roster need cannot replace the underlying League Read rank.
45% league + 32% lineup + 13% bench + 10% need
Waiver value gives more weight to immediate lineup improvement and the effect of the likely drop.
75% personal value + 25% acquisition urgency
ADP, availability at the next pick, waiver claim pressure, opponent need, and recorded owner behavior affect urgency without rewriting player value.
Chronological holdout evaluation
League Read evaluates a model only on outcomes that were not available during training. The window advances through history so later information cannot influence an earlier prediction.
Train earlier weeks
→
Predict the next untouched week
→
Score against actual results
→
Repeat with a larger window
MAE and RMSE
MAE measures the average miss. RMSE penalizes large misses more heavily. Decision-weighted MAE emphasizes players near lineup cutoffs.
Rank correlation
Spearman correlation measures whether the model orders players correctly, not merely whether point totals are close.
Top-player hit rate
The predicted starter-caliber group is compared with the players who actually finished in that group.
Held-out interval coverage
Weekly quantile levels are chosen using earlier calibration weeks. Complete remaining-season ranges use the 10th and 90th percentiles. Later untouched weeks test coverage, width, and large misses.
A testable probability
Confidence estimates the chance that actual points finish within that position's historical median projection miss. Earlier replay weeks calibrate the probability and later weeks test whether, for example, 70% confidence happens about 70% of the time.
Inactive and active outcomes
Expected points account for the chance a player is inactive. A range that mixes inactive and active outcomes requires a fitted active-outcome distribution; when that evidence is missing, the range is unavailable.
Model promotion requirements
- Compare only models with the same scoring, roster, lineup, team-count, and quarterback settings.
- For generated ranges, require newly fitted weekly and remaining-season outcome models with complete held-out replay.
- Check minimum held-out sample size, interval score, and absolute coverage against the configured range requirement.
- Keep earlier point-model comparison rules for saved legacy acceptance profiles; retired percentage bands do not decide generated-range selection.
Limitations
Consensus is not a prediction
Expert rank and ADP summarize other people’s rankings and draft behavior. They remain separate from League Read model output.
Coverage varies by source
Rank ranges, projection ranges, samples, and market movement appear only when the retained source provides them.
League context changes decisions
A public board cannot know private scoring rules, rosters, available players, waiver timing, or owner behavior.
Current validation status
The active public point models below retain their chronological release evaluations. Their historical range-coverage figures describe a retired range calculation and do not validate a current floor or ceiling. A current range appears only when a matching fitted outcome model is available. External point results compare League Read and each source on the same players and weeks.
Promoted chronological evidence
Evaluated
Standard · 12-team · 1 QB
- Holdout
- 7,891 player-weeks
- Seasons
- 2025
- MAE
- 3.230
- RMSE
- 5.028
- Rank correlation
- 0.597
- Top-player hit rate
- 56.0%
- Range coverage
- 0.0%
nfl-com-archive4,843 identical player-weeks
Timing verified
League Read recorded 1.4% lower MAE.
- MAE
- League Read 3.496 · nfl-com-archive 3.545
- RMSE
- LR 5.380 · nfl-com-archive 5.173
- Rank correlation
- LR 0.596 · nfl-com-archive 0.606
- Top-player hit rate
- LR 62.0% · nfl-com-archive 63.3%
- Range coverage
- LR 0.0% · nfl-com-archive 0.1%
Sleeper retrospective5,866 identical player-weeks
Timing unverified
League Read recorded 41.2% lower MAE.
- MAE
- League Read 3.382 · Sleeper retrospective 5.755
- RMSE
- LR 5.268 · Sleeper retrospective 9.123
- Rank correlation
- LR 0.589 · Sleeper retrospective -0.431
- Top-player hit rate
- LR 60.1% · Sleeper retrospective 19.9%
- Range coverage
- LR 0.0% · Sleeper retrospective 13.9%
Promoted chronological evidence
Evaluated
Half PPR · 12-team · 1 QB
- Holdout
- 7,891 player-weeks
- Seasons
- 2025
- MAE
- 3.536
- RMSE
- 5.350
- Rank correlation
- 0.612
- Top-player hit rate
- 56.4%
- Range coverage
- 0.0%
nfl-com-archive4,843 identical player-weeks
Timing verified
League Read recorded 0.2% lower MAE.
- MAE
- League Read 3.893 · nfl-com-archive 3.902
- RMSE
- LR 5.792 · nfl-com-archive 5.584
- Rank correlation
- LR 0.614 · nfl-com-archive 0.625
- Top-player hit rate
- LR 62.7% · nfl-com-archive 63.7%
- Range coverage
- LR 0.0% · nfl-com-archive 0.1%
Sleeper retrospective5,866 identical player-weeks
Timing unverified
League Read recorded 36.6% lower MAE.
- MAE
- League Read 3.773 · Sleeper retrospective 5.954
- RMSE
- LR 5.668 · Sleeper retrospective 9.327
- Rank correlation
- LR 0.608 · Sleeper retrospective 0.598
- Top-player hit rate
- LR 60.5% · Sleeper retrospective 57.9%
- Range coverage
- LR 0.0% · Sleeper retrospective 0.2%
Promoted chronological evidence
Evaluated
PPR · 12-team · 1 QB
- Holdout
- 7,891 player-weeks
- Seasons
- 2025
- MAE
- 3.871
- RMSE
- 5.745
- Rank correlation
- 0.619
- Top-player hit rate
- 57.3%
- Range coverage
- 0.0%
nfl-com-archive4,843 identical player-weeks
Timing verified
nfl-com-archive recorded 0.5% lower MAE.
- MAE
- League Read 4.330 · nfl-com-archive 4.308
- RMSE
- LR 6.289 · nfl-com-archive 6.074
- Rank correlation
- LR 0.624 · nfl-com-archive 0.634
- Top-player hit rate
- LR 63.7% · nfl-com-archive 64.5%
- Range coverage
- LR 0.0% · nfl-com-archive 0.1%
Sleeper retrospective5,866 identical player-weeks
Timing unverified
League Read recorded 32.5% lower MAE.
- MAE
- League Read 4.200 · Sleeper retrospective 6.221
- RMSE
- LR 6.154 · Sleeper retrospective 9.588
- Rank correlation
- LR 0.617 · Sleeper retrospective 0.613
- Top-player hit rate
- LR 61.8% · Sleeper retrospective 59.0%
- Range coverage
- LR 0.0% · Sleeper retrospective 0.3%
Published comparisons are aggregate accuracy results, not redistributed provider projections. Rank products such as ECR and market products such as ADP remain separate because neither is an external point projection.
View current rankings