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Survivor

Pool settings
Balanced pick

Cincinnati Bengals

vs. Tennessee Titans

82% League Read chance to advance Single elimination · Ties count as losses Win 81.6% · Tie 2.3% Odds, excluding ties: 84%

Best in Week 8 and later

This team has the best Week 8 chance without weakening the strongest no-repeat plan across the remaining scheduled weeks.

Expected score
28.0–15.8 Middle 80%: CIN 16.0–40.0; TEN 3.0–29.0
Model evidence
Established
Pool survival
9.1%
Starting-quarterback scenarios use depth order and independent availability estimates. Their probability calibration has not yet been validated with dated injury and depth evidence. Some starting-quarterback scenarios have no individual game history. Their forecasts use a rostered quarterback with game history and have limited evidence. Game forecasts were last rebuilt 2026-10-30 16:34:28Z; a background refresh is pending.

Season map

Select a team in any week to record your pick or reserve it for a future plan. The outlined path updates around those choices.

No picks recorded yet. Select a team in the map to start.
NFL teams by regular-season week with League Read advancement probabilities.
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 Wk 18
ARIArizona Cardinals Bye
ATLAtlanta Falcons Bye
BALBaltimore Ravens Bye
BUFBuffalo Bills Bye
CARCarolina Panthers Bye
CHIChicago Bears Bye
CINCincinnati Bengals Bye
CLECleveland Browns Bye
DALDallas Cowboys Bye
DENDenver Broncos Bye
DETDetroit Lions Bye
GBGreen Bay Packers Bye
HOUHouston Texans Bye
INDIndianapolis Colts Bye
JAXJacksonville Jaguars Bye
KCKansas City Chiefs Bye
LACLos Angeles Chargers Bye
LARLos Angeles Rams Bye
LVLas Vegas Raiders Bye
MIAMiami Dolphins Bye
MINMinnesota Vikings Bye
NENew England Patriots Bye
NONew Orleans Saints Bye
NYGNew York Giants Bye
NYJNew York Jets Bye
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles Bye
PITPittsburgh Steelers Bye
SEASeattle Seahawks Bye
SFSan Francisco 49ers Bye
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers Bye
TENTennessee Titans Bye
WASWashington Commanders Bye
75%+ strong 65–74% viable 55–64% thin Below 55% ✓ Plan Optimized path Safest Best raw chance Leading or won Trailing or lost Started games show the live or final score and update while games are played. “Forecast unavailable” means the scheduled game is known but its forecast is not ready. “No matchup shown” means the schedule for that week is missing; verify the game before recording. Future reservations require a known matchup.
Pool settings · Balanced

Week 8 pool state

Your picks, reservations, and pool rules stay in this browser. Edit picks on the season map.

Pool rules A mulligan covers a loss. Losses from your recorded picks use mulligans automatically, using final NFL scores; the optimizer allows up to the remaining count and never assumes the losses must happen. “After Week N” includes Week N.
Plan style
Viewing Balanced
Maximize the estimated chance of surviving the full remaining season under these pool rules.

Recommended remaining path

Balanced · Single elimination. This scenario honors your reserved teams and updates when forecasts, rules, or picks change.

  1. Week 8 CIN vs. TEN 82%
  2. Week 9 SF vs. LV 84%
  3. Week 10 LAR at ARI 81%
  4. Week 11 KC vs. ARI 82%
  5. Week 12 JAX vs. TEN 83%
  6. Week 13 SEA vs. DAL 81%
  7. Week 14 DET vs. TEN 79%
  8. Week 15 DEN at LV 73%
  9. Week 16 MIN vs. WAS 79%
  10. Week 17 PIT at TEN 77%
  11. Week 18 BUF vs. NYJ 85%

Week 8 choices

Ranked by pool-survival probability under the selected pool rules. The Balanced recommendation applies the selected style after every no-repeat path is scored.

PickMatchupAdvanceOdds (no tie)ExpectedFuture leveragePool survival
Cincinnati Bengals #1 in Week 8 ✓ Plan pick Highest advance chance vs. Tennessee Titans
81.6% Win 81.6% · Tie 2.3%
83.8% LR 0 pp, excluding ties 28.0–15.8 80%: 16.0–40.0 / 3.0–29.0 Use now 0% future-path cost 9.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers #3 in Week 8 vs. Cleveland Browns
76.5% Win 76.5% · Tie 2.0%
63.1% LR +15 pp, excluding ties 27.7–18.5 80%: 16.0–40.0 / 5.0–32.0 Save for Wk 17 5% future-path cost 8.1%
Buffalo Bills #2 in Week 8 vs. Baltimore Ravens
76.8% Win 76.8% · Tie 2.3%
60.9% LR +18 pp, excluding ties 29.7–20.7 80%: 18.0–42.0 / 7.0–34.0 Save for Wk 18 6% future-path cost 8.1%
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
72.1% Win 72.1% · Tie 2.1%
73.5% LR 0 pp, excluding ties 30.1–23.2 80%: 16.0–44.0 / 11.0–36.0 Low 0% future-path cost 8.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
75.6% Win 75.6% · Tie 1.6%
79.5% LR -3 pp, excluding ties 30.2–20.9 80%: 18.0–43.0 / 7.0–35.0 Save for Wk 12 12% future-path cost 7.5%
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals
65.3% Win 65.3% · Tie 4.3%
73.8% LR -6 pp, excluding ties 29.6–23.6 80%: 18.0–42.0 / 10.0–37.0 Low 0% future-path cost 7.3%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
63.5% Win 63.5% · Tie 1.9%
55.6% LR +9 pp, excluding ties 27.4–22.4 80%: 16.0–40.0 / 9.0–36.0 Low 0% future-path cost 7.1%
Los Angeles Rams vs. Los Angeles Chargers
66.7% Win 66.7% · Tie 3.4%
71.7% LR -3 pp, excluding ties 31.0–25.0 80%: 19.0–43.0 / 12.0–38.0 Save for Wk 10 8% future-path cost 6.9%
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears
68.9% Win 68.9% · Tie 3.0%
60.7% LR +10 pp, excluding ties 27.4–20.2 80%: 16.0–40.0 / 7.0–34.0 Save for Wk 13 15% future-path cost 6.6%
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
56.3% Win 56.3% · Tie 4.7%
38.8% LR +20 pp, excluding ties 26.4–24.0 80%: 13.0–40.0 / 12.0–36.0 Save for Wk 16 7% future-path cost 5.9%
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
50.3% Win 50.3% · Tie 2.0%
52.3% LR -1 pp, excluding ties 24.3–24.6 80%: 11.0–38.0 / 13.0–37.0 Save for Wk 11 0% future-path cost 5.6%
New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders
49.9% Win 49.9% · Tie 1.7%
52.3% LR -2 pp, excluding ties 22.3–21.4 80%: 10.0–35.0 / 8.0–35.0 Low 0% future-path cost 5.6%
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
49.1% Win 49.1% · Tie 2.2%
69.8% LR -20 pp, excluding ties 22.1–21.4 80%: 10.0–34.0 / 8.0–35.0 Low 0% future-path cost 5.5%
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
48.7% Win 48.7% · Tie 2.2%
30.2% LR +20 pp, excluding ties 21.4–22.1 80%: 8.0–35.0 / 10.0–34.0 Low 0% future-path cost 5.5%
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
48.4% Win 48.4% · Tie 1.7%
47.7% LR +2 pp, excluding ties 21.4–22.3 80%: 8.0–35.0 / 10.0–35.0 Low 0% future-path cost 5.4%
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
47.7% Win 47.7% · Tie 2.0%
47.7% LR +1 pp, excluding ties 24.6–24.3 80%: 13.0–37.0 / 11.0–38.0 Save for Wk 15 3% future-path cost 5.2%
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
39.0% Win 39.0% · Tie 4.7%
61.2% LR -20 pp, excluding ties 24.0–26.4 80%: 12.0–36.0 / 13.0–40.0 Save for Wk 14 9% future-path cost 4.0%
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
34.6% Win 34.6% · Tie 1.9%
44.4% LR -9 pp, excluding ties 22.4–27.4 80%: 9.0–36.0 / 16.0–40.0 Low 0% future-path cost 3.9%
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
30.4% Win 30.4% · Tie 4.3%
26.2% LR +6 pp, excluding ties 23.6–29.6 80%: 10.0–37.0 / 18.0–42.0 Low 0% future-path cost 3.4%
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams
29.9% Win 29.9% · Tie 3.4%
28.3% LR +3 pp, excluding ties 25.0–31.0 80%: 12.0–38.0 / 19.0–43.0 Low 0% future-path cost 3.4%
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
28.1% Win 28.1% · Tie 3.0%
39.3% LR -10 pp, excluding ties 20.2–27.4 80%: 7.0–34.0 / 16.0–40.0 Low 0% future-path cost 3.1%
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
25.9% Win 25.9% · Tie 2.1%
26.5% LR 0 pp, excluding ties 23.2–30.1 80%: 11.0–36.0 / 16.0–44.0 Low 0% future-path cost 2.9%
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
22.8% Win 22.8% · Tie 1.6%
20.5% LR +3 pp, excluding ties 20.9–30.2 80%: 7.0–35.0 / 18.0–43.0 Low 0% future-path cost 2.6%
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
21.4% Win 21.4% · Tie 2.0%
36.9% LR -15 pp, excluding ties 18.5–27.7 80%: 5.0–32.0 / 16.0–40.0 Low 0% future-path cost 2.4%
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
20.9% Win 20.9% · Tie 2.3%
39.1% LR -18 pp, excluding ties 20.7–29.7 80%: 7.0–34.0 / 18.0–42.0 Low 0% future-path cost 2.3%
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
16.1% Win 16.1% · Tie 2.3%
16.2% LR 0 pp, excluding ties 15.8–28.0 80%: 3.0–29.0 / 16.0–40.0 Low 0% future-path cost 1.8%
Week

League Read
Expected score
Middle 80% range
Odds
Evidence
How League Read builds this plan
Our forecast
League Read projects passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defense from earlier player performance and the expected active roster. Earlier opponent-adjusted team results can supply context, but never replace the player and roster model or become a direct prior-season multiplier. The current production model uses a fixed regularized score formula fitted on earlier games. The fitted score and 4,096 deterministic score simulations produce separate win, tie, and loss estimates. Equal simulated scores count as ties; this tie rate has not been separately calibrated for NFL overtime. A missing kicker identity uses a recent baseline instead of zero and lowers the evidence label. Bookmaker lines do not enter this forecast.
Coaching
Coaching effects are not modeled yet because League Read does not retain dated head-coach, coordinator, and play-caller assignments. The forecast does not infer historical assignments from names or current staff pages.
Odds comparison
Available moneylines are converted to a no-vig consensus. If moneylines are unavailable, the page can show a spread-derived estimate. Odds and the League Read comparison delta are conditional on a decisive result, excluding ties. They are separate from the chance to advance under your pool rules and never change the League Read forecast.
No-repeat plan
The planner assigns a different team to every remaining scheduled week. With no mulligans it exactly maximizes the chance of advancing every week; with mulligans it searches no-repeat paths for the strongest chance of finishing within the available covered-loss limit. Expired mulligans cannot cover later losses. A tie either counts as a loss or advances the entry without consuming a mulligan, according to your selection. Either outcome uses that team; void picks and team reuse are not modeled.
Plan styles
Safe now takes the highest current-week chance to advance. Balanced maximizes modeled pool survival. Future-first protects later options only among plans within 5 current-week percentage points and 2% of Balanced.
Future leverage
Future-path cost measures how much the strongest future-only assignment weakens when that team is consumed this week. High begins at a 5% relative reduction; medium begins at 1%.
Validation
The latest rolling check covers 272 games from 2025, with a strict-home-win Brier score of 0.228 and margin error of 10.3 points.
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